Technology foresight for sustainable production in the German automotive supplier industry

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.09.010Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Sustainable production technologies and processes are sorted by time of occurrence.

  • Short-term: production simulation and monitoring, environmental indicator systems

  • Long-term developments: nanotechnology and energy harvesting

  • Hindrances for SMEs are investment costs and infrequent production re-planning.

Abstract

Environmental sustainability is the new paradigm in production and entails the efficient use of resources and energy. To achieve such efficiency, a multitude of technological and process-related approaches are currently being developed. The aim of this paper is to utilize technology foresight to identify the technologies and processes, which might be relevant for sustainable production in the German automotive industry in the future. Therefore, we conducted a Delphi survey with practitioners and practice-oriented researchers concerning future technologies and their postulated effect on sustainability goals in the automotive industry. The assessments were grouped into five categories: short-term developments, uncertain short-term to mid-term developments, (certain) short-term to mid-term developments, mid-term developments, and long-term developments. These categories provide insight regarding potential drivers (cost reduction, customer demands, and legal requirements) and hindrances (costs associated with large investments) for the implementation of various technologies. Major automotive suppliers are expected to adopt new sustainable technologies faster than small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) since they have the financial means to make investments and sufficient production volumes for automation, and modify production arrangements more often.

Introduction

Technology foresight activities identify the profitability of a technology (Andersen et al., 2004, Svidén, 1988) and, at a national level, determine the areas of potential competitiveness of a country (Anderson, 1997, Cuhls, 2001, Saritas et al., 2007). The influence on sustainability plays a minor role (Liu et al., 2011). Very few technology foresight projects have sustainable technologies as a core focus (Liu et al., 2011, Weinberger et al., 2012). The neglect of sustainability issues is surprising since it is necessary to consider available resources for production, which is recognized to be a major topic for the 21st century (O'Brien, 1999, Seliger et al., 2008). Even though sustainability refers to the so-called triple bottom line of social, environmental, and economic performance (Gimenez et al., 2012), the research at hand focuses on the latter two elements: the eco-efficiency (O'Brien, 1999). In particular, we focus on the environmental sustainability accruing during the production of automobile components in manufacturing companies. Nevertheless, the elements of the triple bottom line are frequently interrelated (Bergenwall et al., 2012) and previous research determined that initiatives to enhance environmental sustainability had a positive effect on social and economic sustainability at the same time (Gimenez et al., 2012). More precisely, implementing environmentally friendly production technologies fosters corporate success (Zeng et al., 2010).

In our research, we focus on sustainable production in the German automotive industry. The automotive industry is a crucial element of the industrial sector with a large number of small and medium-sized automotive suppliers, not only in Germany. A variety of stakeholders such as customers and legislation demands a high degree of sustainability, not only from automotive companies and due to its economic relevance, the automotive industry, the focus on this industry is high (O'Brien, 1999). Thus, it is ahead in sustainable production in many respects (O'Brien, 1999) and additionally demands sustainable processes from the entire supply chain, too (Koplin et al., 2007). For the automotive industry, research on the topic of sustainability is already well established. For instance, the Journal of Cleaner Production published a special issue on The Automobile Industry & Sustainability in 2007. The topic of sustainable driving is not the sole topic addressed from the perspectives of technology (Liu et al., 2011), consumer behavior (Lane and Potter, 2007), and innovation strategy (Magnusson and Berggren, 2011, Zapata and Nieuwenhuis, 2010), and future prospects (Warth et al., 2013) are likewise researched. In addition, topics such as ergonomics in production (Thun et al., 2011), use of alternative materials (Tharumarajah and Koltun, 2007, Zah et al., 2007), and lifecycle assessment are addressed (Duval and MacLean, 2007, Neelis et al., 2004). To the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of information concerning which production technologies might influence sustainable production for automotive suppliers in the future. In a Delphi survey, we collected the opinions of German automotive suppliers and academics on the expected influence of different production technologies and processes on the future of the automotive industry in order to answer the research questions:

  • (1)

    Which technologies will enable environmentally sustainable production in the future?

  • (2)

    How long will it take for the technologies to reach a certain level of adaptation in the industry or to effect sustainability?

Thus, the research at hand can be utilized by practitioners and researchers likewise to obtain insights about the upcoming developments in sustainable production in the automotive supplier industry, especially with regard to the perspective of the manufacturing companies. Based on the argumentation of the panelists for the certain expectations about the future, drivers and barriers for sustainable production technologies can be identified and possible reactions to overcome the barriers can be elaborated.

After a brief review of a literature about sustainable production, we introduce the applied methodology. Based on a literature review of previous technology Delphi surveys, we determine the structure of the Delphi tool for our purposes. We describe the survey process and discuss the survey's findings. Founded in the evaluations of the participants, we group the statements concerning various technologies and their impact on sustainable production in a timeline. We then discuss the drivers and barriers for each development, as stated by the panelists. After a conclusion of the findings, we point out limitations inherent in our research and directions for future research.

Section snippets

Towards sustainable production

An early definition of sustainability was formulated by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland, 1987) as: “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” With regard to environmental sustainability, the sustainability of a product encompasses its entire lifecycle, from design to manufacturing, and use, and disposal (Bevilacqua et al., 2007, Duval and MacLean, 2007, Neelis et al., 2004, Orsato and Wells,

Methodology

Technology foresight activities are often conducted at a national level in order to identify potential competitive advantages of a country and sustain its competitiveness (Aichholzer, 2005, Cuhls, 2001, Héraud and Cuhls, 1999). One method that is frequently used to conduct technology foresight is the Delphi method (Liu et al., 2011, Martin, 1995). The Delphi method was designed in the 1960s by the RAND Corporation in the USA (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963) and is used for foresight where uncertainty

Results and discussion

To recruit knowledgeable Delphi participants, 326 persons that were relevant for the project were contacted. In total, 42 experts participated, equaling a response rate of 13%. A check for non-response bias in order to ensure that the relatively low response rate does not affect the generalizability of the results (Cavana et al., 2000) did not reveal significant differences between early and late respondents (Armstrong and Overton, 1977). Overall, 31 practitioners and eleven researchers

Conclusion

In this paper, we conducted a technology Delphi survey with participants from practice and practice-oriented research regarding technologies and processes for sustainable manufacturing in the German automotive supplier sector. A set of 17 statements were evaluated regarding their expected time of occurrence, the self-rated confidence of the participants in their evaluations, and the expected impact on the company. Based on participants' assessments of expected adaptation timeframes and the

Limitations and future research

There are limitations to mention for the research at hand. The Delphi survey respondents did not have the opportunity to skip survey statements, where they did not feel knowledgeable. Therefore, the survey design is a weakness. The statements presented in the study pertain to different kinds of manufacturing companies. Hence, not every participant is likely to have profound knowledge to judge every statement. The opportunity to skip questions is an inherent feature in classical paper-and-pencil

Acknowledgments

I would like to thank all of the participants of the Delphi survey for their valuable comments and suggestions. In particular, I am highly appreciative of the commitment I received from the Automotive Center Suedwestfalen. The contents of this publication are partly based on the work of the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A) in the course of its leading-edge cluster initiative.

Dr. Bernadette Förster is an affiliated researcher of the Chair of International Business at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, University of Paderborn/Germany. Her research interests include corporate foresight, strategic planning, technology management and innovation management.

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    Dr. Bernadette Förster is an affiliated researcher of the Chair of International Business at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, University of Paderborn/Germany. Her research interests include corporate foresight, strategic planning, technology management and innovation management.

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