Technology foresight for sustainable production in the German automotive supplier industry
Introduction
Technology foresight activities identify the profitability of a technology (Andersen et al., 2004, Svidén, 1988) and, at a national level, determine the areas of potential competitiveness of a country (Anderson, 1997, Cuhls, 2001, Saritas et al., 2007). The influence on sustainability plays a minor role (Liu et al., 2011). Very few technology foresight projects have sustainable technologies as a core focus (Liu et al., 2011, Weinberger et al., 2012). The neglect of sustainability issues is surprising since it is necessary to consider available resources for production, which is recognized to be a major topic for the 21st century (O'Brien, 1999, Seliger et al., 2008). Even though sustainability refers to the so-called triple bottom line of social, environmental, and economic performance (Gimenez et al., 2012), the research at hand focuses on the latter two elements: the eco-efficiency (O'Brien, 1999). In particular, we focus on the environmental sustainability accruing during the production of automobile components in manufacturing companies. Nevertheless, the elements of the triple bottom line are frequently interrelated (Bergenwall et al., 2012) and previous research determined that initiatives to enhance environmental sustainability had a positive effect on social and economic sustainability at the same time (Gimenez et al., 2012). More precisely, implementing environmentally friendly production technologies fosters corporate success (Zeng et al., 2010).
In our research, we focus on sustainable production in the German automotive industry. The automotive industry is a crucial element of the industrial sector with a large number of small and medium-sized automotive suppliers, not only in Germany. A variety of stakeholders such as customers and legislation demands a high degree of sustainability, not only from automotive companies and due to its economic relevance, the automotive industry, the focus on this industry is high (O'Brien, 1999). Thus, it is ahead in sustainable production in many respects (O'Brien, 1999) and additionally demands sustainable processes from the entire supply chain, too (Koplin et al., 2007). For the automotive industry, research on the topic of sustainability is already well established. For instance, the Journal of Cleaner Production published a special issue on The Automobile Industry & Sustainability in 2007. The topic of sustainable driving is not the sole topic addressed from the perspectives of technology (Liu et al., 2011), consumer behavior (Lane and Potter, 2007), and innovation strategy (Magnusson and Berggren, 2011, Zapata and Nieuwenhuis, 2010), and future prospects (Warth et al., 2013) are likewise researched. In addition, topics such as ergonomics in production (Thun et al., 2011), use of alternative materials (Tharumarajah and Koltun, 2007, Zah et al., 2007), and lifecycle assessment are addressed (Duval and MacLean, 2007, Neelis et al., 2004). To the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of information concerning which production technologies might influence sustainable production for automotive suppliers in the future. In a Delphi survey, we collected the opinions of German automotive suppliers and academics on the expected influence of different production technologies and processes on the future of the automotive industry in order to answer the research questions:
- (1)
Which technologies will enable environmentally sustainable production in the future?
- (2)
How long will it take for the technologies to reach a certain level of adaptation in the industry or to effect sustainability?
Thus, the research at hand can be utilized by practitioners and researchers likewise to obtain insights about the upcoming developments in sustainable production in the automotive supplier industry, especially with regard to the perspective of the manufacturing companies. Based on the argumentation of the panelists for the certain expectations about the future, drivers and barriers for sustainable production technologies can be identified and possible reactions to overcome the barriers can be elaborated.
After a brief review of a literature about sustainable production, we introduce the applied methodology. Based on a literature review of previous technology Delphi surveys, we determine the structure of the Delphi tool for our purposes. We describe the survey process and discuss the survey's findings. Founded in the evaluations of the participants, we group the statements concerning various technologies and their impact on sustainable production in a timeline. We then discuss the drivers and barriers for each development, as stated by the panelists. After a conclusion of the findings, we point out limitations inherent in our research and directions for future research.
Section snippets
Towards sustainable production
An early definition of sustainability was formulated by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland, 1987) as: “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” With regard to environmental sustainability, the sustainability of a product encompasses its entire lifecycle, from design to manufacturing, and use, and disposal (Bevilacqua et al., 2007, Duval and MacLean, 2007, Neelis et al., 2004, Orsato and Wells,
Methodology
Technology foresight activities are often conducted at a national level in order to identify potential competitive advantages of a country and sustain its competitiveness (Aichholzer, 2005, Cuhls, 2001, Héraud and Cuhls, 1999). One method that is frequently used to conduct technology foresight is the Delphi method (Liu et al., 2011, Martin, 1995). The Delphi method was designed in the 1960s by the RAND Corporation in the USA (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963) and is used for foresight where uncertainty
Results and discussion
To recruit knowledgeable Delphi participants, 326 persons that were relevant for the project were contacted. In total, 42 experts participated, equaling a response rate of 13%. A check for non-response bias in order to ensure that the relatively low response rate does not affect the generalizability of the results (Cavana et al., 2000) did not reveal significant differences between early and late respondents (Armstrong and Overton, 1977). Overall, 31 practitioners and eleven researchers
Conclusion
In this paper, we conducted a technology Delphi survey with participants from practice and practice-oriented research regarding technologies and processes for sustainable manufacturing in the German automotive supplier sector. A set of 17 statements were evaluated regarding their expected time of occurrence, the self-rated confidence of the participants in their evaluations, and the expected impact on the company. Based on participants' assessments of expected adaptation timeframes and the
Limitations and future research
There are limitations to mention for the research at hand. The Delphi survey respondents did not have the opportunity to skip survey statements, where they did not feel knowledgeable. Therefore, the survey design is a weakness. The statements presented in the study pertain to different kinds of manufacturing companies. Hence, not every participant is likely to have profound knowledge to judge every statement. The opportunity to skip questions is an inherent feature in classical paper-and-pencil
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank all of the participants of the Delphi survey for their valuable comments and suggestions. In particular, I am highly appreciative of the commitment I received from the Automotive Center Suedwestfalen. The contents of this publication are partly based on the work of the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A) in the course of its leading-edge cluster initiative.
Dr. Bernadette Förster is an affiliated researcher of the Chair of International Business at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, University of Paderborn/Germany. Her research interests include corporate foresight, strategic planning, technology management and innovation management.
References (91)
- et al.
Sensor foresight—technology and market
Technovation
(2004) Technology foresight for competitive advantage
Long Range Plan.
(1997)- et al.
Foresighting key areas in the information technology industry
Technovation
(2008) - et al.
TPS's process design in American automotive plants and its effects on the triple bottom line and sustainability
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
(2012) - et al.
Optimization of machining processes from the perspective of energy consumption: a case study
J. Manuf. Syst.
(2012) - et al.
Future disassembly and recycling technology: results of a Delphi study
Futures
(1998) - et al.
Improving the Delphi process: lessons from social psychological research
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
(2011) - et al.
Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
(2011) - et al.
Advice taking and decision-making: an integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences
Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process.
(2006) The UK technology foresight programme: an assessment of expert estimates
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
(2009)
Modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting case study of electronics and information technology in India
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Development trends in Taiwan's opto-electronics industry
Technovation
Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Sustainable production: the ultimate result of a continuous improvement
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
The role of product information in automotive plastics recycling: a financial and life cycle assessment
J. Clean. Prod.
The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy: a Japanese view
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
An environmental assessment method for cleaner production technologies
J. Clean. Prod.
A tool to implement sustainable end-of-life strategies in the product development phase
J. Clean. Prod.
The UK technology foresight programme
Futures
Sustainable operations: their impact on the triple bottom line
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
Future issues of science and technology
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach — a methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Identification of future fields of standardisation: an explorative application of the Delphi methodology
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Sustainability of manufacturing and services: investigations for research and applications
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and Learnings from the TechCast Project
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: a continuous assessment of the technology revolution
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Current foresight activities in France, Spain, and Italy
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Incorporating sustainability into supply management in the automotive industry—the case of the Volkswagen AG
J. Clean. Prod.
The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK: exploring the consumer attitude–action gap
J. Clean. Prod.
Three eras of technology foresight
Technovation
Integrating environmental consciousness in product/process development based on life-cycle thinking
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
Exergetic life cycle analysis of hydrogen production and storage systems for automotive applications
Int. J. Hydrog. Energy
Assessing the environmental impact of metal production processes
J. Clean. Prod.
Sustainable production — a new paradigm for a new millennium
Int. J. Prod. Econ.
The automobile industry & sustainability
J. Clean. Prod.
A case study of long-term Delphi accuracy
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Medical technology decisions in the Netherlands: how to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Transitioning to sustainable production — part II: evaluation of sustainable machining technologies
J. Clean. Prod.
Sustainable production technologies which take into account environmental constraints
Eur. J. Oper. Res.
Sustainable machining: selection of optimum turning conditions based on minimum energy considerations
J. Clean. Prod.
Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis
Int. J. Forecast.
Delphi: a reevaluation of research and theory
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Vision 2023: Turkey's National Technology Foresight Program: a contextualist analysis and discussion
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
Cited by (40)
Digitalization and entrepreneurial firms' resilience to pandemic crises: Evidence from COVID-19 and the German Mittelstand
2023, Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeCitation Excerpt :In general, response rates in management and entrepreneurship research have been declining in recent decades (e.g., Chidlow et al., 2015; Pielsticker and Hiebl, 2020), especially those targeting top executives (Cycyota and Harrison, 2006). However, our achieved response rate seems satisfactory, as it is in line with those of comparable recent and well-published survey studies (e.g., Rodil et al., 2016; Förster, 2015; Popa et al., 2017; Xie et al., 2022). Of the 156 cases, 23 had to be removed due to missing information on the variables of interest in this study.
Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study
2022, Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeCitation Excerpt :Recently, the industrial sector has been the subject of numerous foresight studies in various markets, such as automotive (Förster, 2015; Fritschy and Spinler, 2019; Liu et al., 2011; Ruff, 2015), manufacturing (Culot et al., 2020; Wonglimpiyarat, 2006; Yoon et al., 2018), energy (Alizadeh et al., 2016; Pólvora et al., 2020; Shah et al., 2013), information and telecommunication (Chen et al., 2012; Wonglimpiyarat, 2006), the stone industry (Macedo et al., 2017), machine building (Sommarberg and Mäkinen, 2019), and shipbuilding (Vishnevskiy et al., 2017). Most of these sectoral analyses have been conducted at a national level, including Germany (Förster, 2015; Fritschy and Spinler, 2019; Ruff, 2015), China (Chen et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2011), Russia (Vishnevskiy et al., 2017), Brazil (Macedo et al., 2017), Spain (Shah et al., 2013), Taiwan (Su et al., 2010), Austria (Weber et al., 2019), Thailand (Wonglimpiyarat, 2006), and South Korea (Yoon et al., 2018). However, some works have a wider scope, such as developing countries (Pietrobelli and Puppato, 2016), Northern European countries (Sommarberg and Mäkinen, 2019), or even the world (Culot et al., 2020; Kopyto et al., 2020).
The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study
2022, Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeReimagining the future: Techno innovation advancement in manufacturing
2021, Materials Today: ProceedingsCitation Excerpt :Manufacturing practices are gradually adopting the smart technology mechanism to operate. The result of our investigation allay that information technology industry has a huge role to play in industry development, it confirms that there is a gap of knowledge on the lack of understanding of the type/selection, and operability of the emerging technologies as stated by [50]. The penetration of smart and intelligent, or innovative strategies as in; internet of things, and cloud computing enabled services, exemplified by the internet of production and blockchain technology is encouraged to become part of the mainstream manufacturing psyche.
Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods
2020, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Dr. Bernadette Förster is an affiliated researcher of the Chair of International Business at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, University of Paderborn/Germany. Her research interests include corporate foresight, strategic planning, technology management and innovation management.
- 1
Tel.: + 49 5251 60 2076.