Elsevier

Science of The Total Environment

Volume 574, 1 January 2017, Pages 332-349
Science of The Total Environment

On-road vehicle emissions and their control in China: A review and outlook

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.040Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Vehicle emission controls in China are reviewed including measures related to vehicle, fuel, traffic and economic aspects.

  • Total vehicle emissions have peaked and are now decreasing despite increasing vehicle population.

  • Policy suggestions are provided for China’s vehicle emission controls during the mid-term future.

  • Tightening standards, lowering usage and promoting electrification are essential to reduce hydrocarbon emissions.

  • After-treatment devices with proper in-use programs can greatly reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matters.

Abstract

The large (26-fold over the past 25 years) increase in the on-road vehicle fleet in China has raised sustainability concerns regarding air pollution prevention, energy conservation, and climate change mitigation. China has established integrated emission control policies and measures since the 1990s, including implementation of emission standards for new vehicles, inspection and maintenance programs for in-use vehicles, improvement in fuel quality, promotion of sustainable transportation and alternative fuel vehicles, and traffic management programs. As a result, emissions of major air pollutants from on-road vehicles in China have peaked and are now declining despite increasing vehicle population. As might be expected, progress in addressing vehicle emissions has not always been smooth and challenges such as the lack of low sulfur fuels, frauds over production conformity and in-use inspection tests, and unreliable retrofit programs have been encountered. Considering the high emission density from vehicles in East China, enhanced vehicle, fuel and transportation strategies will be required to address vehicle emissions in China.

We project the total vehicle population in China to reach 400–500 million by 2030. Serious air pollution problems in many cities of China, in particular high ambient PM2.5 concentration, have led to pressure to accelerate the progress on vehicle emission reduction. A notable example is the draft China 6 emission standard released in May 2016, which contains more stringent emission limits than those in the Euro 6 regulations, and adds a real world emission testing protocol and a 48-h evaporation testing procedure including diurnal and hot soak emissions. A scenario (PC[1]) considered in this study suggests that increasingly stringent standards for vehicle emissions could mitigate total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 by approximately 39%, 57%, 59% and 79%, respectively, compared with 2013 levels. With additional actions to control the future light-duty passenger vehicle population growth and use, and introduce alternative fuels and new energy vehicles, the China total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 could be reduced by approximately 57%, 71%, 67% and 84%, respectively, (the PC[2] scenario) relative to 2013. This paper provides detailed policy roadmaps and technical options related to these future emission reductions for governmental stakeholders.

Section snippets

Introduction and background

China's vehicle population has increased dramatically over the past two decades as a result of the rapid social-economic development and urbanization. China's gross domestic production (GDP; see all the abbreviations in the supplementary information) per capita, urbanization rate and total length of highways increased substantially from 1990 to 2014. Over the same time, China's total vehicle population (excluding rural vehicles) increased from 5.5 million in 1990 to 148 million in 2014; a

Emission regulations of new vehicles

China adopted a series of emissions control strategies for light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles and motorcycles in the early 1990s following regulation archetypes used in developed countries in the 1970s and 1980s (Wu et al., 2011, Wu et al., 2016). However, these regulations were not sufficiently stringent to push substantial upgrades. Taking light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) for example, manufacturers could depend on carburettors without after-treatment devices to meet the standard

Current status of vehicle emissions and the remaining major challenges

Since the late 1990s, researchers have assessed China's vehicle emissions of major air pollutants by applying international models (Fu et al., 2001, Wang et al., 2010). Results from measurements of Chinese vehicle emissions and usage patterns were used to localize key parameters. Fu et al. (1999) tested dozens of LDGVs, heavy-duty diesel engines, and motorcycles on a dynamometer and proposed localized basic emission factors and deterioration rates for the MOBILE-China model. Zhou et al. (2010)

Conclusion remarks and policy recommendation

Over the past two decades, China has experienced rapid growth in vehicle population and established “vehicle-fuel-traffic” integrated strategies to control vehicle emissions. Building on experiences in developed countries, the implementation of increasingly stringent standards for vehicle emissions has been the most effective among all emission control measures adopted in China. In Beijing, the pioneer city of controlling vehicle emissions, the emission standards are scheduled to be tightened

Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91544222) and Chinese Academy of Engineering. We authors sincerely thank Miss Hui He of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) for providing fundamental data and figures presented in the supplementary information. The authors are also grateful to Dr. Wei Shen and Dr. Weijian Han of the Ford Motor Company for their helpful comments and discussions. The contents of this paper are solely the

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