Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004

Global and Planetary Change

Volume 113, February 2014, Pages 11-22

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004 Get rights and content

Highlights

•
Updated global and regional sea level rise since 1807
•
Fastest sea level rise in Arctic (3.6 mm·yr^− 1) and Antarctica (4.1 mm·yr^− 1) since 1970.
•
Acceleration of 0.02 mm·yr^− 2 in global sea level (1807–2010)
•
Uncertainties in GSL reconstruction due to GIA corrections are up to 0.3 mm·yr^− 1.

Abstract

We use 1277 tide gauge records since 1807 to provide an improved global sea level reconstruction and analyse the evolution of sea level trend and acceleration. In particular we use new data from the polar regions and remote islands to improve data coverage and extend the reconstruction to 2009. There is a good agreement between the rate of sea level rise (3.2 ± 0.4 mm·yr^− 1) calculated from satellite altimetry and the rate of 3.1 ± 0.6 mm·yr^− 1 from tide gauge based reconstruction for the overlapping time period (1993–2009). The new reconstruction suggests a linear trend of 1.9 ± 0.3 mm·yr^− 1 during the 20th century, with 1.8 ± 0.5 mm·yr^− 1 since 1970. Regional linear trends for 14 ocean basins since 1970 show the fastest sea level rise for the Antarctica (4.1 ± 0.8 mm·yr^− 1) and Arctic (3.6 ± 0.3 mm·yr^− 1). Choice of GIA correction is critical in the trends for the local and regional sea levels, introducing up to 8 mm·yr^− 1 uncertainties for individual tide gauge records, up to 2 mm·yr^− 1 for regional curves and up to 0.3–0.6 mm·yr^− 1 in global sea level reconstruction. We calculate an acceleration of 0.02 ± 0.01 mm·yr^− 2 in global sea level (1807–2009). In comparison the steric component of sea level shows an acceleration of 0.006 mm·yr^− 2 and mass loss of glaciers accelerates at 0.003 mm·yr^− 2 over 200 year long time series.

Introduction

Our understanding of the present day sea level rise has changed considerably over the past 10–20 years. Satellite altimetry measurements since 1993 have provided unique information about changes in global and regional mean sea levels, suggesting the rate of 3.2 mm·yr^− 1 global sea level rise for the period 1993–2012 (Boening et al., 2012, Cazenave et al., 2012), which notably exceeds the estimate of 1.8 mm·yr^− 1 sea level rise for the 20th century (Bindoff et al., 2007). However, there have been suggestions that the rate is not historically exceptional. For example, similar rates were observed in tide gauge records during the period 1920–1950 (Jevrejeva et al., 2006) and in decadal mean rates in the 1950s and 1970s (Church and White, 2006), and even a rate of 5.3 mm·yr^− 1 centred on the 1980s by Holgate (2007).

To identify the long-term changes and variability of sea level over the past 200 years the tide gauge records provide the only instrumental data available. Individual tide gauge observations (Douglas, 1997), global sea level (GSL) reconstructions using tide gauge data (Gornitz, 1997, Jevrejeva et al., 2006, Grinsted et al., 2007, Jevrejeva et al., 2008a, Jevrejeva et al., 2008b, Merrifield et al., 2009, Ray and Douglas, 2011), and reconstructions that jointly use satellite altimetry and tide gauge records (Church and White, 2006, Church and White, 2011) show evolution of sea level rise for the past 50–100 years.

In this study we renew the global sea level reconstruction by Jevrejeva et al. (2006), using monthly mean sea level data collected by Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) covering the observations from 1807 to 2010. Here we improve the GSL in three main respects: by increasing data coverage by using many more stations particularly in the polar regions, and recently processed historic data series from isolated island stations; we split the West Pacific region into north-western and south-western basins; and also extend the time covered by the reconstruction from 2002 to 2009. We analyse the difference between the rate of global sea level rise calculated using tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements for the overlapping period 1993–2009. We perform several experiments with intent to gauge the uncertainties in GSL reconstructions associated with vertical land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the solid Earth, using GIA corrections from different sources. Finally, we use our new reconstruction to estimate trends and acceleration in regional and global sea levels.

Section snippets

Data

As with our previous reconstruction (Jevrejeva et al., 2006), data are available from http://www.psmsl.org/products/reconstructions/jevrejevaetal2006.php. We have used Revised Local Reference (RLR) monthly mean time series from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database (Holgate et al., 2013). In this study we utilised an updated dataset of 1277 monthly mean time series covering the period 1807–2010 (Fig. 1). No inverted barometer correction was applied. In our study we have

Global monthly mean sea level reconstruction 1807–2010

Global sea level reconstruction (GSL12) from 1277 tide gauge records located along the 14 coast lines is presented in Fig. 6. We compare GSL12 with sea level reconstruction from Jevrejeva et al. (2006), named GSL06. We have used the same method for both reconstructions, however, the main differences are in datasets: for the GSL06 we used 1023 tide gauges and 1277 for GSL12; the number of regions has increased from 13 to 14 (though we exclude the Baltic Sea in both reconstructed global sea level

Discussion

The time variable estimates of acceleration in 203 years of global sea level reconstruction suggest that there are periods of slow and fast sea level rise associated with decadal variability, which has been previously reported by several authors (Douglas, 1992, Church and White, 2006, Jevrejeva et al., 2008a, Jevrejeva et al., 2008b, Woodworth et al., 2009). Several studies (Church and White, 2006, Church and White, 2011, Jevrejeva et al., 2008a, Woodworth et al., 2009, Olivieri and Spada, 2013)

Conclusion

Global sea level reconstruction based on 1277 tide gauges records has been used to determine global and regional sea level changes from 1807 to 2010. There is an excellent agreement between the linear trends from GSL12 and satellite altimetry sea level since 1993, with rates of 3.1 ± 0.6 mm·yr^− 1 and of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm·yr^− 1 respectively. GSL12 shows a linear trend of 1.9 ± 0.3 mm·yr^− 1 during the 20th century and 1.8 ± 0.5 mm·yr^− 1 for the period 1970–2008. Regional decadal trends demonstrate diversity since

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by China's National Key Science Program for Global Change Research (Nos: 2010CB950504, 2010CB951401 and 2012CB957704), and NERC consortium “Using Inter-glacial to assess future sea level scenarios” (NE/I008365/1), and NSFC No. 41076125, and is publication number 10 of the Nordic Centre of Excellence SVALI, Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice funded by the Nordic Top-level Research Initiative. The programme SELEN (v. 2.9) is available from the Computational

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View full text

Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807

Highlights

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

Data

Global monthly mean sea level reconstruction 1807–2010

Discussion

Conclusion

Acknowledgement

Global Planet Change

Quat. Sci. Rev.

J. Geodyn.

Glob. Planet. Chang.

Comput. Geosci.

Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level

The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell

Geophys. Res. Lett.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance reconstruction. Part II: surface mass balance (1840–2010)

J. Clim

Greenland ice sheet mass balance reconstruction. Part III: marine ice loss and total mass balance (1840–2010)

J. Clim

An improved glacial isostatic adjustment model for the British Isles

J. Quat. Sci.

Estimating ENSO influence on the global mean sea level, 1993–2010

Mar. Geod.

Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet

Science

A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise

Geophys. Res. Lett.

Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century

Surv. Geophys

Glacial isostatic adjustment and the anomalous tide gauge record of eastern North America

Nature

Global sea level acceleration

J. Geophys. Res.

Global sea rise: a redetermination

Surv. Geophys.

On postglacial sea-level

Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc.

Global sea level trend in the past century,

Science

Simulated global mean sea level change over the last half-millennium

J. Clim.

Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle

PNAS

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Clim. Dyn.

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J. Geophys. Res.

Tide gauge-based sea level variations since 1950 along the Norwegian and Russian coasts of the Arctic Ocean: contribution of the steric and mass components,

J. Geophys. Res.

Combination of geodetic observations and models for glacial isostatic adjustment fields in Fennoscandia

J. Geophys. Res.

On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century

Geophys. Res. Lett.

New data systems and products at the permanent service for mean sea level

J. Coast. Res.

Nonlinear trends and multi-year cycle in sea level records

J. Geophys. Res.