Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy
Introduction
The adoption of US policies focused on reducing GHG emissions is likely to alter the provision of public goods and services. As revenues captured from existing energy markets decrease, public service agencies are likely to see operating budget reductions (Jorgenson et al., 2008, Ross et al., 2008). Impacts to the provision of public services are likely to differ by state. For example, in the case of outdoor recreation opportunities provided by state park systems, operating expenditures are generated by a mix of revenues and government appropriations. As a state's economic health wanes, so too will its ability to provide high quality outdoor recreation opportunities in state parks (Siderelis and Smith, 2013). As evidence of this connection, reductions in congressional appropriations in some states have already affected operating hours, reduced employment rates and created a backlog of deferred maintenance. The connection between the provision of outdoor recreation opportunities and the states’ economies can subsequently impact public health benefits (Ruhm, 2000). Given GHG reduction policies may alter states’ economic growth trajectories, quantifying the projected impacts of climate change mitigation policies on the provision of public goods and services is needed to identify solutions that can maintain those goods and services into the future.
The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in operating expenditures from the year 2014 to 2020 for each of the state park systems within the US under a domestic climate change mitigation policy. Our goal is to demonstrate an empirical linkage between a domestic GHG reduction policy and the provision of public goods and services, specifically outdoor recreation opportunities and its associated benefits. To our knowledge, no previous study had demonstrated a direct linkage between the adoption of a domestic GHG reduction policy and the provision of public services. Through our analyses we produce three specific outcomes highly relevant to environmental policy makers and recreation resource managers: (1) we estimate state-level technical efficiency metrics for the states’ park systems, providing decision makers with empirical evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies can be improved; (2) we estimate state-level changes to operating expenditures under a domestic climate change mitigation policy, highlighting substantial variability across the states’ park systems; and (3) we explore two potential solutions (increasing gross state product (GSP) or technical efficiency) for addressing negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a climate change mitigation policy.
Section snippets
State park systems in the United States
State park systems in the US facilitate the preservation, regulation and provisioning of natural and cultural ecosystem services. The nation's state park systems are public lands and waters established for their environmental and social value (Caneday et al., 2009). Although the resources, administration type, system size and visitation levels differ among states, services provided by state park systems include both the protection of high quality or unique natural and cultural resources as well
Method
To analyze the potential impact of a GHG reduction policy on the provision of outdoor recreation through the states’ park systems we utilize a longitudinal panel dataset extending from the years 1984–2013 that details the 50 states’ park systems. We join these data with simulation results projecting changes to the states’ economies from 2014 to 2020 as a result of the adoption of a domestic cap-and-trade policy. We then dynamically forecast changes to operating expenditures under the
Technical efficiency for all the states’ park systems
Results of applying the technical efficiency model described in Eq. (1) to the longitudinal panel data are shown in Table 2. The model fit the data exceptionally well; the R2 was 0.90 suggesting the output factors associated with producing outdoor recreation opportunities explain 90% of the variance in reported operating expenditures.1 A large proportion of the
Dynamic forecasting
Given substantial heterogeneity in GSP measures, we generated state-specific forecasts for the years 2014–2020. Forecasted GSP measures were created through state-specific time-trend regression models fit to all 30 years of the data.3 Given these data represent GSP forecasts using only observed measures, we use them to define our ‘business as usual scenario’.
Changes to GSP under the ‘free offsets scenario’ and the
Discussion
The results of our dynamic forecasting model applied to the longitudinal panel dataset reveal the real, indirect effects on the decisions of state park operators as a result of domestic GHG reduction efforts. As GSP levels are impacted by the transition to renewable energy sources and more sustainable land use practices, appropriations to the states’ park systems will see reciprocal decreases. In turn, capital available to maintain high-quality outdoor recreation opportunities will be reduced.
Jordan W. Smith is the Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Social Science and GIS at NC State University. His research utilizes a wide range of methodologies, including geospatial modeling, longitudinal and panel data analysis and immersive virtual environments, to better understand human behavioral responses to increasingly variable environmental conditions driven by climatic change.
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Jordan W. Smith is the Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Social Science and GIS at NC State University. His research utilizes a wide range of methodologies, including geospatial modeling, longitudinal and panel data analysis and immersive virtual environments, to better understand human behavioral responses to increasingly variable environmental conditions driven by climatic change.
Yu-Fai Leung is the Professor in Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management at NC State University. His research program addresses the challenges of integrating visitation and conservation for protected areas, with the current focus on developing methods and building capacity for effective monitoring and management of visitor use and impacts.
Erin Seekamp is Assistant Professor in the Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management at NC State University. Her research program focuses on building communities’ and agencies’ capacity to adapt to tourism and recreation system impacts, including impacts related to climate change and invasive species.
Chelsey Walden-Schreiner is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at NC State University. Her research focuses on integrating geospatial methods and tools to monitor, evaluate and manage environmental impacts of human activities within the context of climate change in protected natural areas.
Anna B. Miller is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management at NC State University. Her research focuses on quantifying environmental impacts of visitors to protected areas, currently concentrating on impacts to wildlife along recreational trails. She is also interested in public participation in natural resource monitoring in protected areas.