Life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in Pakistan: Policy regime for a sustainable energy mix

Highlights

• Summarizes the published indicators to study the sustainable electricity production.

• Assesses the life cycle sustainability of electricity sector in Pakistan.

• Recommends policy guidelines and implementation framework.

Abstract

Electricity crisis has become a key issue in Pakistan mainly due to a tenacious and spreading gap between demand and supply. Moreover, the current production is causing severe environmental and energy security issues due to reliance on thermal sources. Stakeholders are hindered to address these issues due to a significant knowledge gap causing discrepancies in power policies. A comprehensive approach over the sustainability dimensions is missing due to non-adoption of life cycle thinking. This study adopts an integrated approach of life cycle sustainability assessment of the electricity sector in Pakistan for proposing policy guidelines and implementation framework to optimize the future energy mixes. In total, 20 sustainability indicators have been assessed covering life cycle of seven electricity generation sources, currently in use. These sources have been ranked by equally weighting the sustainability dimensions and respective indicators. Hydropower is found as the most sustainable option having lowest environmental and economic impacts. While due to worst economic and social impacts, oil is found to be the least sustainable option for the country. While establishing tradeoffs between different electricity generation sources, this study presents an unbiased view and highlights the worth of life cycle approach in sustainability assessment for improving the energy policies.

Introduction

Sustainable development (SD) is a dynamic process aimed at balancing the current and future competing needs (Azapagic et al., 2004). It has evolved from environmental and economic domains to embrace the societal, technological, institutional and political necessities of the world (Meyar-Naimi and Vaez-Zadeh, 2013, Štreimikienė et al., 2016). Because of the growing concerns over unsustainable practices, necessary processes and methods have been developed and used to assess, manage and improve sustainability. Since sustainable development has an overarching mandate, one of the widely adopted approaches for achieving it is life cycle thinking which enhances the sustainability in different sectors and industries (Ness et al., 2007). Various life cycle techniques such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) and Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) have been developed to cover various dimensions of sustainable development (Rovere La et al., 2010, UNEP, 2012).

Various sectors and industries including manufacturing, infrastructure, construction, urban development, agriculture, mining and mineral extraction, education, and most importantly, electricity production are governed by sustainable development (Aboushady and El-Sawy, 2013, Santoyo-Castelazo and Azapagic, 2014). Energy in the form of electricity production has central importance in the overall growth of a nation along with other industries. A sustainable mean of electricity production can improve economy, quality of life and social wellbeing of a country (Maxim, 2014). With an initial focus on environmental issues, the electricity production is now being studied to enhance economic, social and technological aspects in the developed as well as developing regions. Research on sustainable electricity production varies with respect to many features such as depth of study, technological level, temporal and geographical distribution, and tools used for assessment and integration of different sustainability dimensions (Santoyo-Castelazo and Azapagic, 2014).

Table 1 summarizes a total of 161 indicators that are used in 29 different studies of separate regions throughout the world to study the sustainable electricity production. The reviewed studies, published during years 2002–2017, reflect the accumulated knowledge of last 15 years. The synthesized indicators are grouped into 11 sustainability issues covering the three generalized groups of sustainability; environment, techno-economy and socio-politics. Though there are some indicators that can be placed in more than one sustainability issues, they are categorized as per relevance and convenience. For example, human toxicity potential can be used to examine both health and safety issue as well as emissions to air, water and soil (May and Brennan, 2006, Stamford and Azapagic, 2012). However, for this research, it has been included in the health and safety issue. Another example is abiotic resource depletions which can be related to both environmental and social sustainability (Albo et al., 2010, Stamford and Azapagic, 2012). There are some overlapping indicators which can be expressed either explicitly or grouped into a common indicator. For example, ecotoxicity potential of fresh and marine waters feeds into water quality indicator. Another example is levelized cost which is calculated by adding capital, operations and maintenance (O&M) and fuel costs (Gujba et al., 2010).

Environmental sustainability related to electricity generation has been summarized in four major issues as emissions to air, water and soil, resource consumption, land use and quality, and waste related issues (Atilgan and Azapagic, 2016, Rovere et al., 2010, Schenler et al., 2009). Global warming potential (GWP) is the top most consideration of environmental sustainability and more than 80% studies have discussed it. Other mostly considered indicators associated with the issue of emission to air, water and soil are acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, and water and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Abiotic depletion of fossils and elements, and water consumption are the mostly studied indicators under the umbrella of resources consumption issue. Land occupation or land requirement is another mostly assessed indicator which is considered in 44% of reviewed articles.

The indicators related to techno-economic sustainability are listed under two main groups, as financial and operability issues (Chatzimouratidis and Pilavachi, 2009). Capital and levelized costs, capacity and availability factors, and energy efficiency are the most prominent indicators in this group.

The third dimension of sustainable development is socio-political which is sub grouped as employment, health and safety, security and reliability of energy sources, political and institutional stability and legitimacy, and quality of life and local community impact (Carrera and Mack, 2010, Meyar-Naimi and Vaez-Zadeh, 2013, Stamford and Azapagic, 2011, Štreimikienė et al., 2016). Socio-political sustainability is measured by a large variety of indicators most of which are qualitative in nature, but have a low frequency of appearance in past studies. Whereas, quantitative indicators such as direct and indirect jobs, and worker injuries and fatalities are the top most measures to assess social sustainability as synthesized from previous literature. Security and reliability of energy sources is another frequently stressed area to assess social sustainability of electricity production (Carrera and Mack, 2010, Santoyo-Castelazo and Azapagic, 2014).

Since a safe and robust energy supply is essential to cater for the soaring demands of developing infrastructure and industry (Kessides, 2013), sustainable electricity generation becomes one of the most important factors to cultivate the economy and improve living standards of a country. Pakistan is a developing country and its electricity consumption is growing annually at a rate of 11% (Awan and Rashid, 2012). Since the last decade, it is facing serious outages and has failed to meet the electricity demand, resulting into critical governance issues (, 2013, Sakrani et al., 2012). In 2015, the total installed capacity of the country was 24,823 MW while maximum demand was 26,437 MW (NEPRA, 2015). Reacting to this serious electricity deficit, authorities are involved in energy summits and long debates to find panacea for electricity shortages. Various possible renewable and nonrenewable sources of electricity production are being considered to propose short-, mid- and long-term solutions to this nuisance (Valasai et al., 2017).

The total electricity generated in the country during 2014–15 was 109,059 GWh and almost two-thirds (69,988 GWh) of this was from thermal sources (NEPRA, 2015). Such large reliance on fossil-powered electricity results into huge environmental impact. Alarmingly in 2013, the CO₂ emissions from the electricity and heat production sector was 31.3% of total fuel combustion (WB, 2016). Though environment has not been traditionally focused as a top priority in Pakistan, recent initiatives and policies show a high concern about environmental protection. Implementation of Energy Efficient Renovation (EER) and modernization aims at reducing the GHG emission along with improving efficiency and optimizing the fuel consumption for power plants (Abbasi et al., 2014). Inclusion of affordable and clean energy, and climate action in the agenda of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2015–2030 also highlights the ambition of authorities regarding environmental protection and quality of life for the people of Pakistan (LEAD, 2016). Further, being part of Kyoto Protocol, there is an increasing pressure to reduce emissions related to thermal power which contributes major part of the national electric-mix (Iqbal et al., 2010). The higher reliance on thermal sources also brings the issue related to fuel supply chain. In year 2014–2015, Pakistan imported 71% of total required crude oil for oil-based power plants (MPNS, 2016, PBS, 2016).

Pakistan's first meticulous energy policy was launched in 1994, which aimed at adding 30,000 MW of electricity produced through thermal sources. Previously, out of 11,000 MW, more than 60% was produced through hydroelectric sources, however this policy transformed the energy mix from 60%‐40% to 30%‐70% in favor of thermal sources of electricity generation (Policy, 1994). Power Generation Policy (2002) was a major initiative for capacity development against least cost for the user through existing native resources. Later, Energy Security Action Plan was announced in 2005 with an objective of consistent, diversified and quality sources of energy including coal, gas, hydropower and other renewables (EDMS, 2007). A need to devise such a plan was mainly driven by the fact that Pakistan's geo-strategic position and its importance are at the core of its energy security issues (Sahir and Qureshi, 2007). Government of Pakistan also promoted the energy conservation program in 2008 and 2010.

To meet the current electricity deficit in the country, National Power Policy (2013) was announced with meticulous targets and objectives as a way forward for short-, mid- and long-term. Keeping these objectives intact, Power Generation Policy (2015) aims to:

• meet the supply-demand gap from 4500 MW to 5000 MW till 2017 by energy conservation practices and improving the system efficiency for decreasing the transmission and distribution losses from ~ 23–25% to ~16%;

• increase the affordability by reducing electricity cost from 12c/unit to almost 10c/unit by 2017 through indigenous resources such as coal (Thar coal) and hydel as inexpensive and affordable means;

• improve the governance for immediate delivery of electric projects in pipeline.

As a quick solution to energy crises, policy focus has remained on short-term solutions, including coal as a source of electricity generation, which is evident from launching of new power generation units in Sahiwal and Thar, and procurement of new projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Other breaches that add to the ill functioning of current policy include non-adoption of life cycle thinking resulting into the lack of understanding about sustainable electricity production (Qudrat-Ullah, 2015). In the light of this preamble, Pakistan's energy policy requires an integrated, systematic and economic approach for shaping a sustainable policy inception along with an implementation framework that upholds the letter and spirit of sustainability. It should represent an adequate tradeoff between energic, economic and environmental aspects.

In line with this motivation, the current study provides a new way of thinking for policy makers and stakeholders by evaluating and comparing different electricity generation sources currently operational in the country, with respect to their environmental, economic and socio-political aspects in a life cycle perspective.