Elsevier

Ecological Economics

Volume 123, March 2016, Pages 1-13
Ecological Economics

Analysis
Shifting demand for winter outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior under variable rates of climate change: A finite-mixture modeling approach

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.12.010Get rights and content

Abstract

Many communities located in natural resource rich landscapes have transitioned to tourism-based economies. This transition might not be sustainable, as climate and environmental change have unknown effects on the visitation patterns of outdoor recreationists and tourists. We address this uncertainty by estimating shifts in the demand for outdoor recreation destinations along Minnesota's North Shore region of Lake Superior under a range of projected climatic and environmental conditions. We also employ a finite-mixture modeling approach to capture the preference heterogeneity across North Shore visitors. Our findings indicate projected climate and environmental changes are not likely to significantly affect visitation patterns in the next 20 years. However, utilizing a finite-mixture modeling approach enabled us to identify distinct types of visitors with divergent visitation behaviors under altered climate and environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that the demand for outdoor recreation along the North Shore will be relatively stable in the near future, however different types of visitors will respond to warming winter conditions in divergent ways. Shifting visitation patterns under climate and environmental change may have more drastic alterations to the economic well-being of the region under a longer planning horizon.

Introduction

The economies of many small, northern latitude communities have become increasingly dependent upon the outdoor recreation industry over the past 30 years (Beesley et al., 2003). This economic restructuring commonly involves a transition away from extractive industries like agriculture, forestry and mining and is a reciprocal effect of the global economy being driven less and less by commodity production and manufacturing (McCarthy, 2008, Woods, 2007). Most small, northern latitude communities have been well positioned to navigate this transition, as the landscapes surrounding them tend to be highly valued for outdoor recreation (McGranahan, 1999, McGranahan et al., 2010). For example, the Northern Forest in the Northeastern US has transitioned from being used primarily for timber production to supporting a diverse range of outdoor recreation activities, such as downhill and cross country skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling and sledding that are in high demand from urban populations along the East Coast. In a similar example, the mineral rich and remote landscapes of northern Minnesota provide a host of relatively pristine outdoor recreation settings that are highly valued by the growing metropolitan areas of Minneapolis–St. Paul and Duluth.

While the shift from extraction- to amenity-based economies promises a lot of economic reward, it also comes with substantial risk (Jackson-Smith, 2003, Rothman, 1998). The landscapes that provide high quality outdoor recreation opportunities are highly variable ecological systems that can adversely respond to exogenous shocks and stressors such as changes in regional climatic conditions. This fact has given some community residents pause as to whether or not outdoor recreation based economies are sustainable (Slemp et al., 2012, Smith et al., 2012a). Without a clear, scientifically-grounded understanding of how outdoor recreation systems will respond to climate and environmental change, local residents will remain unable to make strategic long term planning and policy decisions that maintain or improve their current levels of economic well-being and conserve the natural landscapes upon which they depend.

The primary purpose of this paper, therefore, is to estimate shifts in the demand for outdoor recreation destinations under a range of projected climatic and environmental conditions that capture the uncertainty in future emissions trajectories; we do this through a traditional travel cost model. We also attempt to capture the taste and preference heterogeneity of outdoor recreationists and tourists through a finite-mixture modeling approach, an approach that allows for a better characterization of visitors' contingent trip-taking behaviors. Our study is focused on outdoor recreation destinations along Lake Superior's North Shore in northern Minnesota, USA (Fig. 1). The region lies just east of the Mesabi Iron Range, and its small communities are typical of many in the northern latitudes that are currently facing uncertainty over how climate change will impact the outdoor recreation systems upon which their economies depend.

Section snippets

The Effects of Climate Change on the Demand for Winter Outdoor Recreation

The outdoor recreation industry will be affected by changing climatic conditions (Berrittella et al., 2006, Scott et al., 2008a). Observed effects, based on historical visitation, climate and environmental data, include shifts in both the magnitude (Fukushima et al., 2002, Hamilton et al., 2007, Palm, 2001, Pickering, 2011) and seasonality (Amelung et al., 2007, Buckley and Foushee, 2012, Scott et al., 2004) of visitation. Despite the logical correlation between visitation and

Study Area: The North Shore of Lake Superior

Minnesota's ‘North Shore’ is a region along the coast of Lake Superior characterized by small communities, composed of traditional infrastructure (e.g., schools, libraries, grocery stores, medical centers, etc.) and locally owned businesses that accentuate the tourism industry (e.g., restaurants, lodges and gift shops). Nature-based recreational amenities are plentiful, including eight state parks located along Minnesota State Highway 61, a nationally designated All-American Road, and the Lake

Continuous Mixture Model

Results from the population averaged negative binomial regression model are presented in Table 2. Again, this model fits the data to a single overdispersed mixing distribution under the assumption tastes and preferences are homogenous across the sample. The results reveal outdoor recreationists and tourists are not likely to alter their trip-taking behavior during the winter season under warmer conditions. This finding was expected given the relatively small differences between respondents'

Implications

We initiated this research with two goals. The first was to estimate shifts in the demand for winter outdoor recreation along Minnesota's North Shore of Lake Superior under a range of projected climatic and environmental conditions. Using bias-corrected projections representing a range of potential climate and environmental conditions corresponding to future emissions trajectories, we determined respondents' contingent trip-taking behavior was not significantly different from their behavior

Conclusion

Minnesota's North Shore of Lake Superior is typical of many northern latitude amenity-rich regions comprised of communities facing difficult decisions about how to best plan for potentially substantial shifts to regional climate and environmental conditions. Without a scientifically grounded understanding of how the region's outdoor recreation systems will respond to change, decision makers and local natural resource managers are at a loss for how (or even whether they should) allocate scarce

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    Jordan W. Smith is now with the Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism and the Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University.

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